It should still be an open race for third/fourth place at the end of March. But while Spurs should still be in a strong position, anything less than near perfection for The Gunners could be disastrous.

And why Arsenal’s game against Swansea could prove to be just as important as the one away at Spurs

February is a fairly quiet month for Premiership football with clubs distracted by the Champions league Europa Cup, and FA Cup.

But as for March… Well chances are that many of the key games that will have a massive impact on the Premiership table and especially who qualifies for the Champions league, will be decided in that month.

If we assume that United wining the title is pretty much a done deal and that City will recover and finish second, then third and fourth paces are the key battles. And at the moment it is three London clubs and two Merseysiders who will decide who ends up where.

Arsenal

It could be argued that Arsenal have the easiest run out of all the teams competing for third or fourth place (although Chelsea have some very winnable games too). For starters they have two home bankers – though if this season’s record is is anything to go by they are by no means a done deal – and some winnable games in April and May too.

The three games then that could change Arsenal’s season, though and effectively make April and May an academic exercise, are away at Tottenham, at home to Everton and then away at Swansea.

A defeat against Spurs followed by any points dropped against either Everton or Swansea would effectively kill off their Champions league aspirations. So it is essential that they grab a point at the Lane, I think they might manage this. However their stretched squad could then struggle at Swansea.

I think they will enter April very much in the race for a Champions League slot but still the outsider reliant on their rivals dropping points

Spurs

Let’s face it Spurs fans. That Champions League spot is yours, if you can keep the momentum going. Assuming that Spurs win away at West Ham and bag three points at home to Fulham they then face three very tricky ties in a row – just like Arsenal.

I can’t see Arsenal beating Spurs, or the other way round, so a draw in that game is most likely. If Spurs win that game and then beat Liverpool the week after they will be in a very strong position. I wonder though if the games away at Liverpool and Swansea will end up as draws.

Even so this will leave Spurs in fourth place and ready for a hard month in April that includes against Chelsea, Man City and Everton.

The importance of Swansea

As for Chelsea I think they will still be in third place come the end of March, but with their two London rivals waiting for them to slip up.

Unless they can pull off an impressive away win at Arsenal and beat City at home I think Everton will drop out of the race. As for Liverpool they are probably too far off the pace to make a serious challenge.

So while the Spurs Arsenal game could produce a serious blow to one team’s CL hopes, I wonder if it is the away games at Swansea that will finish one of the London sides off.

Swansea have only lost twice at home this season and have drawn with Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United (as well as Arsenal in the FA Cup).

Arsenal

Arsenal V Aston Villa WIN

Tottenham V Arsenal DRAW

Arsenal V Everton WIN

Swansea V Arsenal DRAW

Arsenal V Reading WIN

11 points – 55 points at end of March

Spurs

West Ham V Tottenham WIN

Tottenham V Arsenal DRAW

Liverpool V Tottenham DRAW

Tottenham V Fulham WIN

Swansea V Tottenham DRAW

9 points 57 points at end of March

Chelsea

Man City V Chelsea LOSE

Chelsea V West Brom WIN

Fulham V Chelsea WIN

Chelsea V West Ham WIN

Southampton V Chelsea DRAW

10 points 59 points at end of March

Everton

Norwich V Everton WIN

Everton V Reading WIN

Arsenal V Everton LOSE

Everton V Man City LOSE

Everton V Stoke WIN

9 points 51 points at end of March

Liverpool

Liverpool Vs West Brom WIN

Liverpool V Swansea WIN

Wigan V Liverpool WIN

Liverpool V Tottenham DRAW

Southampton V Liverpool DRAW

Aston Villa V Liverpool DRAW

12 points 48 points at end of March